Thursday, February 03, 2005

A Bomb Headed For Google??

Talk about pay-per-click fraud that could happen. A weapon of mass deception.

From Silicon Valley Watcher Is this a Google atom bomb?.

For several months now I’ve been troubled by a nagging and unpleasant thought that there is a potentially large vulnerability in Google’s Adwords business model. I mentioned it for the first time the other day to a couple of friends and they urged me that I should publish it and not sit on it because it is better to get it out earlier than later.

If there is a problem with the business model then it can be dealt with while there are still mostly insiders holding the stock rather than Joe Public.

Okay, this is it:

A billionaire has arranged to give $100m to the first person that clicks on a special link that looks like a Google text ad.

Why $100m?..make it $1m a week, or make the dollar amount random.
Yes, Google a great company with a great product, but still a commodity.

The pay per click model is primitive and ripe for distortion, just as this post states.

I would make it a contest. "Find the lucky ad and win $1m". Mix it up and offer the $1m randomly, weekly, monthly, every other Tuesday.

Once the traffic volume becomes random, the value of each keyword is lost. All you need to do to throw off the "value" of each keyword is create erratic patterns. The game accomplishes this. And when you issue the prize at different times, the whole concept is flawed.

So as I have been stating for a while now.

What happens when brands control how users get to their sites? Will keyword still have value??

Will brands be bidding for specific keywords knowing the valuation model can be distorted?

Or will brands look for a way to get users to their websites on their own?

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