As a Google executives publicly state that the big growth ahead lies in the mobile search market, I thought this would be a good time to review what Physical World Connection really is.
The search wars are heating up and it is becoming clear who is winning. But, what happens when Google runs out of runway space? What happens when the race changes venues?
PC Search is about finding the best solution/answer. And advertising. Advertising drives search. There are only so many programs on your pc (surf, chat, email and now desktop) that you can find ways to advertise on. When you cant put any more pay-per-clicks on your pc screen, then what happens?
How will search advertising continue this growth once this happens? How will advertisers shift their advertising dollar to the mobile device?
There will come a point when there is more internet traffic from mobile devices than PCs. What happens to search engines then? What happens to the Golden Goose of advertising when people wont be using a search engine to do their surfing?
That screen on your cellphone will be the most coveted piece of real estate to advertisers. People wont be using search engines on their phones.
What replaces the keywords model for the advertising dollars?
Physical World Hyperlinks.
Now that the hyperlink owner has a direct connection to his site using a 2d code, outside of advertising, where is the need for search engine optimization? You are already optimized!
So now every barcode on every can of Coke, 2d code on a movie poster, becomes a hyperlink, or direct connection to wherever Coke wants you to go.
4 Billion websites and hundreds of billions of physical objects have now found their own way to direct traffic without using a search engine.
Companies wont give out websites to go to, they will advertise using 2d codes and get a direct connection, bypassing a search engine. They will put a code on a poster, or magazine ad, or a short code on the tv screen. When any user types, scans, texts this code, they will be directed to the specific site that company wants you to go.
What happens when the physical world hyperlinks can link to the Internet? How does Google sell their keywords to these sites now? There wont be algorithms to decipher to put your site at the top of the search request. The physical world hyperlinks will be the direct link. How will Google and other SEs get a piece of these 4B plus unique hyperlinks? This registry will replace keywords.
Will you really want to see the first page of 1200 top ten results for a search on your mobile?
Between the slowing growth of PCs and the number of mobile devices connected to the Net, search and advertising will change. What companies will see this first and dominate Phase 2 of the internet. Offer the browser for the physical world?
Phase 1 was about surfing, searching, chat, email. Machine to machine form of communicating. It was revolutionary, it disrupted many industries, it made our economy so much more efficient and it created many new powerful companies. The Ebay, Amazon, PriceLines found a way to create businesses from Phase 1. They recognized how commerce would change with the introduction of the internet and created businesses to accommodate this change. Not only did they disrupt the traditional method but by utilizing the internet they opened up the boundaries for potential customers.
Now comes Phase 2. This is what ubiquitous computing is all about. Phase 2 is when every physical item in the world can, and will be, connected to the internet. People are no longer stuck at their office, home pc, they are mobile, using their mobile devices for more than speaking.
The combination of a portable microprocessor and trillions of objects having their own link to the net, this is Phase 2.
When you walk down the street, look at how many people have their cell phones/PDA's in their hand or in their pocket. How many operating systems are now mobile? How many browsers are there that are untapped? Everyone of those cell phones represents an internet user. Another pair of eyes for Google. A way for Google to generate advertising, but how?
How can Google continue their search/advertising dominance in the mobile world?
What if MSFT unveils the browser for the physical world. The PCs are walking, untethered.
This is transformation.
How does Google and others get these users to their site when I'm not at a desk? What does search look like when it's mobile? How will we surf/search when we are mobile? How do advertisers and service providers generate revenues (more than the 15.00 unlimited web access a Sprint has).
What happens when society is surfing more w/ their mobile device than the pc? What does Google do when this happens? Will they recognize there will be more Google eyes on mobile devices than pcs? How do you sell keywords for this?
The bigger question, as an advertiser, how do I advertise with this new medium?
Advertisers are still trying to catch up with the eyeballs that left TV to the stationary Net. What happens when the net shift goes from the pc to the cell phone. Will advertisers realize their new mediums are the supermarket, the restaurant, sporting goods store, billboard, movie poster,..or in other words, every physical object in the world with a unique identifier.
Google says their database is up to 8B now, MSFT bragging about 5B. The 1B cans of 12 oz Coke represent 1B ways to get to just one site. So instead of offering access to 8B sites, there are now 1B ways (just 1 12 oz can of Coke alone) to get to Cokes site. Remember search/surf changes when it goes public.
What happens when every can of Coke can be hyper-linked to the net? Or every Elton John CD, or every menu, concert ticket, street sign, business card, bag of Pringles. With a direct link to the net, why do I need to pay Google for this? If I'm Pringles, I don't need to pay ANY search engine to get me at the top of the list. I'm already there and I am interacting w/ my consumer.
Advertisers will now have a service that measures an ads effectiveness immediately. It will merge the advertising in the physical world (magazines, TV, cereal box) with the internet.
How much is this worth to a brand manager? Now every physical item in the world becomes a hyperlink to the net, bypasses any search engine, and is the medium by which advertisers will advertise and conduct e-commerce. What companies will see this first?
Will Google realize the PC market is finite? The vehicle for their advertising is shrinking and is now becoming mobile? There is a head on collision coming. The search engine and the physical world hyperlink are on the path for a head-on collision.
I'll put my money on the hyperlink, it is everywhere, doesn't matter who's OS is, will be marketed by the advertisers, and will give me a direct connection.
MSFT, Symbian, Palm are on all of those untethered pc's (cellphones/ PDA's) where is Google? Texting isn't a direct connect. The question is who will have the physical world browser/OS for this?
Google is stuck in the electronic world.