Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Here's How Microsoft Can Beat Google

How does MS leapfrog Google and dominate search and Phase 2?

Bill Gates had the vision to see every PC would need an operating system and elected to get a piece of every pc sold w/ DOS/windows. Let the Hardware guys decide what else to put on the pc and how to market it. He just wanted the platform that allows it.

Windows and IE was THE platform for the connection to electronic world. It was true visionary thinking and it took many years for the competition to catch up and offer alternatives. MS literally dominated Phase1, the connection of the electronic world.

Phase2 is the mobile PC (cell phone) and the physical world.

Phase 2 is coming and it will take some forward thinking to create the next OS that will be required on every computing device. Phase 2 will be 1000 times larger and more lucrative than Phase 1.

Phase 2 is connecting every physical item to the Internet. People want more, they want interaction, immediate response. Phase 2 will create more killer apps than Phase 1 because you have taken the internet outside the box and have a vast amount of items to search/link. Phase 2 takes the internet in 3-D and creates an infinitesimal amount of data to search/link. But the only way to connect these items is through a unique tollbooth (IP).

Every physical item WILL BE connected to the net. It will be done through a 2d code barcode, an RFID tag, a Zigbee chip, a word, a sound, a fingerprint, a magnetic strip, a phone number.

There is NO DOUBT that every one of these items WILL HAVE an internet address and will be part of numerous killer apps.

Today there are more mobile devices than PC’s connected to the Internet. The Internet is being used by mobile devices in a much different way than the PC. What does mobile mean. It means capable of moving.

The computing device is now portable and platforms on it must accommodate this feature. Search and functions WILL NOT be the same for the mobile as a PC. What the mobile device must do is offer ease of use, AND the ability to interact w/ the physical world.

Now here’s where Microsoft comes in. Will they, or Google ,Symbian or somebody else have the forward thinking to realize that the operating system that offers this, will be the DOS/Windows for Phase 2? Every computing device, not just PC’s WILL HAVE TO HAVE the ability to connect every physical item to the Internet.

How many websites are out there currently? What does Google claim their database size is? Well let’s just take 1 can of Coke. How many cans of Coke are out there? What happens when you “turn on” all of the 12 0z cans of Coke. Every can of Coke will be an interactive website. Do you think the Brand Manager of Coke 12 oz will pay $1000.00 to “turn on” every can of 12 oz Coke in the world? Do you think that gives him endless dynamic marketing opportunities? Do you think a good portion of the $1.4T spent on advertising worldwide will be spent just on turning these physical items?

That will give you a little taste of how enormous the database will be when the physical world gets connected to the Internet. But in order to connect these cans of Coke, you MUST have these cans “turned on”

Phase 2 is different than Phase 1 in many ways. Phase 1 involves surfing the net, sending email, instant messaging. Phase 1 is the communication of computing devices through the Internet. Phase 2 adds an exponential factor. Now take EVERY PHYSICAL ITEM and connect it to the Internet and all of these computing devices. The Internet will now multiply exponentially. The growth curve of data and applications will be hockey stick like.

Who wants to get paid for EVERY DEVICE that will allow this growth to occur?

Who wants to collect the tolls for the traffic that this generates?

This “turn on” IP will be required for the Phase 2 OS . But lets not call it an operating system. Operating system implies software for a specific device, either PC or mobile. That is too narrow. Instead let’s call it a platform. This platform will be necessary for EVERY computing device (PC and Mobile) to connect to this world. This platform is truly a “killer” platform in that EVERY computing device will need it to connect to the physical world. AND it will create ENORMOUS killer apps from it.

How much is this worth? How much do companies spend on buying keywords?

If you can imagine that now EVERY physical item will be connected to the Internet, and then figure the connection must run through a unique “server tollbooth”.

How much is it worth to Microsoft or a Google to have the power to turn on EVERY PHYSICAL item in the world.

It’s not a question of IF now, it’s a question of WHEN every physical item in the world will be connected to the Internet.

Think of the endless applications that will be generated once they are turned on.

Microsoft can go from being attacked from every angle. (Linux, Google, Mozilla) and losing market share in the old Net to completely dominating the next phase of the Internet (Phase 2) which will be infinitesimally larger and create an exponential amount of business applications.

Who wants to have the OS/Windows for Phase 2 of the Internet? Will Bill Gates see this again or will the Brin/Page team discover it?

Hey Bill you have the money to make it happen. What are you waiting for?


Bigs said...

I know neomedia is positioning itself for that platform. Who else has the IP to make it happen? I'm curious who the best positioned players are?

Scott Shaffer said...

Stay tuned..

The hottest market right now for VC money is mobile, there's a reason.

Anonymous said...

Infospace is the company you are looking for - INSP reaches 700+ phone devices with all manner of multimedia content - they also have the hyper targeted storefront and hybrid b2c/private label (into carrier branded deck) required to dominate mobile content merchandising and delivery on a mass market scale -

INSP early mover advantage is far far far ahead of GOOG and MSFT

Scott Shaffer said...

InfoSpace is a good one..but there are a couple others that are making some big waves too.

Anonymous said...

Where does this leave NeoMedia in the race to mobile search? Is it NeoMedia, or ScanBuy in the right place? Who is really the patent leader?

Scott Shaffer said...

You're missing some other players .

There will be more than one way, and more than one type of device, that will allow access to information from the Internet in the physical world.

Mike said...

Hi Scott, I'm very curious about your thoughts. I have been following NeoMedia, and ScanBuy for about a year now. It seems that they are not moving. It seems their battle will never end. Is there a winner here? Is there a major player getting ready to dominate waiting for a winner? Are they both just going to be left behind? Mike

Scott Shaffer said...


It's way too early to declare a "winner". The race hasn't even started.

Take a look at the list , there are more than 2 companies on it.

I am discovering a new PWC every week and a few aren't even on my list.

Text messaging is just becoming widely accepted. Look how long that took.

There are a few obstacles that stand in the way of adoption.

The longer the implementation process, usually the bigger the impact it has.

Anonymous said...

Hi Scott, what do you think of the new name for paperclick??? I like "qode". I am hoping this will help stir some share activity! Neom has been doing a bunch of things for the advance of company/shareholder value. I can't believe the 20% naked short position! I am not asking for investment advice, but I have to believe Neom is well positioned! Any thoughts you would be kind enough to share? Any progress with Scanbuy? Thanks, Mike PS Forgot my password!!

Anonymous said...

Blogwriter: "Windows and IE was THE platform for the connection to electronic world. It was true visionary thinking and it took many years for the competition to catch up and offer alternatives. MS literally dominated Phase1, the connection of the electronic world."

What you said is Bullshit with big B, man. You are trying to re-write history.

Microsoft was in no form visionary. They didn't invent HTML. They didn't build first browser. Never heard about Amazon, Netscape, Ebay, Altavista, Yahoo etc which all were first and visionary.

Microsoft has been nada inventive. They are just a copy-cat. As usual.